Are FCS vs. Power Four upsets extinct? The college football landscape is evolving, and the gap between the FBS and FCS is widening. Power conference teams have won 125 straight games against FCS competition, with the last upset occurring in 2023. This trend is largely attributed to the transfer portal and NIL, making it harder for FCS programs to retain their best players. However, the question remains: will we ever see another FCS upset again?
Personally, I think the possibility of an FCS upset is still there, but it will require a near-perfect alignment and a bit of luck for the FCS side. The 2026 schedule features more than 120 FBS vs. FCS matchups, with 57 of those pitting an FCS program against a Power Four opponent. If the streak is going to end this season, it's probably going to come from one of these games.
One game that stands out is No. 3 South Dakota State at Northwestern. South Dakota State will get the respect it deserves from Northwestern coach David Braun, who spent four seasons as North Dakota State's defensive coordinator. While South Dakota State has struggled against Power Four opponents since 2015, they have the talent to make this a competitive game. Northwestern, on the other hand, has been on the wrong end of three FCS upsets since 2006.
Another game to watch is No. 9 Youngstown State at Kentucky. Kentucky has landed a top-10 transfer portal class, but first-year coaches have learned the hard way that talent alone doesn't guarantee immediate success. Youngstown State, led by reigning Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard, has the quarterback to make this an uncomfortable game for Kentucky.
No. 10 North Dakota at Nebraska is also a game to watch. Nebraska hasn't lost a game to an FCS opponent, but North Dakota has the pieces to make this a problem if Nebraska isn't careful. Dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski and All-American edge rusher Lance Rucker are back from a 2025 team that nearly pulled off an upset at Kansas State.
No. 14 Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State is another game to watch. Mississippi State could make a jump in Year 3 under Jeff Lebby, but there is also a scenario in which the Bulldogs are completely checked out come November. Tennessee Tech, led by coach Bobby Wilder, has reloaded with another strong transfer class for 2026.
No. 17 Austin Peay at Vanderbilt is also a game to watch. Vanderbilt enjoyed two breakthrough seasons with quarterback Diego Pavia at the helm, but he's gone, leaving coach Clark Lea to prove the Commodores can sustain that momentum without him. Austin Peay brings plenty of firepower of its own, led by quarterback Chris Parson, who was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award last season.
Finally, No. 22 Monmouth at West Virginia is a game to watch. Monmouth has made a habit of giving Group of Six teams fits in recent years, but West Virginia will be the first Power Four opponent the Hawks have faced. The Mountaineers are a perfect 24-0 against FCS competition, but this is a much different West Virginia roster under Rich Rodriguez.
In my opinion, the possibility of an FCS upset is still there, but it will require a near-perfect alignment and a bit of luck for the FCS side. The games mentioned above are the best chances for an FCS upset in 2026. However, the gap between the top of college football and the FCS is widening, and the transfer portal and NIL are the biggest reasons why. It's harder every year for FCS programs to hang onto their best players, many of whom leave for the FBS level.
